2024 Senate Elections 538 . Data for fivethirtyeight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 republican primary averages is available for download here. But montana went to trump by 20.2% in 2016 and by 16.4% in 2020, and tester is considered one of the most vulnerable democrats in the senate.
Nevada (six votes), arizona (11 votes), wisconsin (10 votes), pennsylvania (19. An updating average, accounting for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
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